Max Verstappen attempts to evade the Monza Curse at the 2023 Italian Grand Prix as he aims to win a record tenth Formula 1 race in a row, but what part will the weather play? What is the weather forecast for the weekend’s F1 Italian GP?
The Dutch GP was heavily rain-affected, Verstappen rode the chaos and never really looked like losing the win, but Sergio Perez was caught out at the end of the race and slipped off the podium into fourth.
The race saw a huge 89 pit stops and the weather around Milan would need to be pretty crazy to cause a repeat of that, but it could still add yet another grand prix to a wet and wild F1 streak.
The last F1 race without a drop of rain falling over an on-track session was the Azerbaijan GP all the way back at the end of April. Interestingly, Perez has only scored three podiums in that spell.
Every Italian GP winner since 2019 has crashed out of their subsequent visit to Monza – Charles Leclerc, Pierre Gasly and Daniel Ricciardo – while Lewis Hamilton was the last back-to-back winner of the race in 2017 and 2018.
Friday: Practice 1 and 2
Forecasts diverge later in the weekend but Friday predictions are pretty simple. Monza‘s default setting seems to be baking heat and clear blue skies, and that’s basically what’s expected for free practices.
It’s going to be hot – above 25 degrees Celsius – but this is actually the coolest day of the weekend as teams prepare for a scorcher in Italy.
The UK Met Office does give a 40% chance of rain at 14:00 local time – bang in the middle of FP1 – but nowhere else backs that up so fans will just have to wait and see if the short sharp shower does arrive.
Aside from that, drivers shouldn’t need to worry about wind in contrast to Zandvoort, a trend that continues all weekend.
Saturday: Practice 3 and Qualifying
Amazingly, there’s also some rain around on Saturday, though it could very easily either miss the circuit or F1 track time.
Some forecasts have around a 40% chance of a downpour at 14:00 – bang in the middle of the gap between FP3 and qualifying, which starts at 16:00 local time.
There could still be a bit of rain around then, but it could just as easily be blazing sunshine with the mercury getting up another couple of degrees from Friday.
Sunday: Race
Yet again, there’s a range of forecasts for Monza. The most optimistic forecasts give (again) around a 40% chance of rain at the 15:00 lights out time, but others have sunshine all day without a hint of rain.
And track temperature is set to stay at a scorching 27 degrees, with minimal wind affecting the race.
Over the course of the weekend there’s cumulatively a decent chance – maybe one in three or four – that F1‘s wet streak continues to nine race weekends.
Whether it affects any competitive sessions is a different story though, if any drivers are to stop Verstappen they’ll likely need to do it in a straight and dry fight.
